Where does this data come from?

Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.

Can I make this my own dashboard?

Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Politics · Geopolitics · live

Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?

No 98% · Yes 2%. Smart money leans Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 3¢). Volume $3.7k, liquidity $12k. Trade it on Polymarket ↗ Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗

No
98%
Yes
2%
Volume
$3.7k
Liquidity
$12k

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on this market by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Smart wallets

Who holds each side.

Yes

5 wallets · 1,661 known shares

ToTheWindow
entry 3¢ · all-time +$34k · win 54%
lpgb
entry — · all-time +$37k · win 35%
SpringlyFawl
entry — · all-time +$30k · win 41%
123987456
entry — · all-time +$49k · win 41%
luciebot
entry 98¢ · all-time +$7.9k · win 50%

No

0 wallets

No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet holds this side.

More Geopolitics markets

FAQ

What are the odds for “Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?” on Polymarket?: No 98% · Yes 2%, on $3.7k of volume. The odds-history widget charts the last month; every number refreshes on your plan's cadence — 15 minutes on Hobby, every minute on Developer.
Who is the smart money on “Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?”?: Smart money leans Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 3¢). The smart-money widget lists the ranked, Sharp and Whale wallets on each side with their shares, entry prices and track records; the 'follow' line summarises which side they favour.
Where does this data come from?: Polymarket odds, volume and liquidity from the public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L, win rates and smart-money positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of this market — every smart wallet by name with its P&L and trades — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones the six widgets into your account; change the window, add a wallet, filter the tape to one side, and publish it as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live market or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.

Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Austria by December 31, 2026?

live

Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place… · odds, 1 month

Market & odds history

Current odds

Market & odds history

98%

Smart money by side · known shares

Smart money on a market

Yes2k100%

Tape · this market, $500+

Live trade tape

No trades match these filters in the current window.

Geopolitics markets by 24h volume

Live markets

Market	Odds	24h volume	Liquidity	24h change
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	Yes 3% · No 97%	$227k	$80k	-6.9%
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 97% · No 3%	$153k	$94k	4.2%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes 5% · No 96%	$130k	$649k	-1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes 2% · No 98%	$120k	$331k	0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes 98% · No 2%	$93k	$46k	1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes 12% · No 89%	$83k	$324k	0%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Yes 27% · No 74%	$77k	$91k	-4%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes 42% · No 58%	$72k	$183k	-0.2%

Order book · depth behind the odds

Order book

Yesbid 2¢ask 2.1¢spread 0.1¢mid 2.1¢

SizeBid

AskSize

2432¢

2.1¢268

81.9¢

2.2¢5

1.0k1.3¢

2.3¢8

2000.6¢

2.8¢100

560.5¢

12¢50

2.0k0.4¢

12¢30

5400.3¢

12¢120

9100.2¢

13¢10

10k0.1¢

15¢13

18¢45

Biggest holders · each side

Top holders

Wallet	Outcome	Shares	All-time P&L
paddaa	Yes	5k	$311k
ToTheWindow	Yes	2k	$34k
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	475	$193k
2B9S	Yes	384	$97k
mapleleafgrief	Yes	248	$1k
Haradwaith	Yes	180	−$421k
Lucerys	Yes	167	$290k
73f44919CE0143F0e9a05F531f7C8B15c8a483a0.	Yes	120	$1k
MessyPrediction	Yes	71	$111.88
lpgb	Yes	60	$37k
0xa5ef39	No	8k	$0

Smart-money conviction · Geopolitics

Smart-money conviction

1Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?$24k
2Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?$23k
3US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?$30k
4Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?$18k
5US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?$12k
6US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?$2k
7US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?$1k