No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $483k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Trtr2026 took +$16 on Yes from 0¢; the biggest loser gave up $110.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Trtr2026 | Yes | $15.95 |
| 0x688b… | Yes | $12.00 |
| Seldon26 | No | $11.66 |
| JordanMooney | No | $10.49 |
| kamarat | Yes | $9.70 |
| 0xac38… | Yes | $9.30 |
| starship432 | Yes | $9.01 |
| 0x0aa0… | Yes | $6.50 |
| CriptanTDA | Yes | $4.80 |
| somclaren | Yes | $3.97 |
| win-at-all-cost | No | $3.41 |
| 0xcc8b… | Yes | $2.63 |
87 wallets held a position at the close. The 30 biggest winners took $120; the 57 biggest losers gave up $400. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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