No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $1.0M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
00088000 took +$19 on Yes from 0¢; the biggest loser gave up $29.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 55% · No 46% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 00088000 | Yes | $18.75 |
| 0x688b… | Yes | $10.88 |
| trustinmoi | Yes | $7 |
| Ersicolus | Yes | $4.46 |
| slut4trading | Yes | $3.87 |
| Retsukholp | Yes | $1.82 |
| sparklepen | Yes | $1.54 |
| 0x6fbc… | Yes | $1.50 |
| syngencat | Yes | $1.33 |
| legopen | Yes | $1.00 |
| stweb33 | Yes | $0.63 |
| BlancheDevereaux12 | Yes | $0.50 |
54 wallets held a position at the close. The 14 biggest winners took $54; the 40 biggest losers gave up $202. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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