No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $316k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
CriptanTDA took +$62 on Yes from 0¢; the biggest loser gave up $40.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 100% · No 0% | $636k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 86% · No 14% | $210k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 45% | $176k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $88k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 61% · No 40% | $83k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $71k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | Yes 66% · No 35% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| CriptanTDA | Yes | $61.94 |
| Ersicolus | Yes | $58.64 |
| 0x5cb9… | Yes | $13.10 |
| northhexa9 | Yes | $9.09 |
| temp123456 | Yes | $8.50 |
| toufik-la-moula | No | $4.60 |
| 0x24bb… | Yes | $3.65 |
| win-at-all-cost | No | $3.60 |
| 49ddgfd | Yes | $3.48 |
| Seeja | Yes | $2 |
| solder | No | $1.80 |
| petralha | Yes | $1.71 |
77 wallets held a position at the close. The 24 biggest winners took $184; the 53 biggest losers gave up $280. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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