No won. Smart money backed Yes (6 ranked wallets, average entry 0¢) and lost. Volume $106k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
0x688b… took +$3 on Yes from 0¢; the biggest loser gave up $26.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $642k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $146k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x688b… | Yes | $3.06 |
| 69dsfs | Yes | $2.63 |
| 0x8dc4… | Yes | $1.51 |
| HappyGamma | Yes | $1 |
| Mysaria | No | $0.80 |
| HappyAlpha | Yes | $0.77 |
| 0x0aa0… | Yes | $0.68 |
| molodoyy | Yes | −$26.38 |
| 007x007 | Yes | −$18.85 |
| 0xcdbc… | Yes | −$9.53 |
| Saintofcircumstance | Yes | −$7.22 |
| CriptanTDA | Yes | −$7.21 |
34 wallets held a position at the close. The 7 biggest winners took $10; the 27 biggest losers gave up $117. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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