Yes won. Smart money backed No (8 ranked wallets, average entry 23¢) and lost. Volume $94k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
0x4e3d… took +$412 on Yes from 86¢; the biggest loser gave up $252.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $629k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x4e3d… | Yes | $412.32 |
| ljubavm888 | Yes | $253.40 |
| Diplopia2 | Yes | $102.25 |
| Jydyjyd | Yes | $85.42 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $73.01 |
| 0x4aa8… | Yes | $70.14 |
| lostmansoul | Yes | $66.00 |
| Nowayfolding | Yes | $50.00 |
| 23449 | Yes | $44.30 |
| IwillRichSoon | Yes | $40.60 |
| BigDumbDumb | Yes | $36.72 |
| BigUmpalumpa | Yes | $32.53 |
369 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $1.9k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.7k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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