Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 76¢) and lost. Volume $1.9M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 73% · No 27% | $1.2M |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $429k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $391k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 39% · No 61% | $223k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $206k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 14% · No 86% | $142k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $139k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $126k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | Yes | $28k |
| Phantom69 | Yes | $14k |
| 38327832383823 | Yes | $6k |
| gods-eye | Yes | $6k |
| eCash | Yes | $6k |
| hachi1990 | Yes | $4k |
| PredictKitten | Yes | $4k |
| asdsdfdgfh | Yes | $3k |
| hooterz | Yes | $3k |
| 0x83d7… | Yes | $3k |
| SquirrelTheMerchant | Yes | $2k |
| AYTLS | Yes | $2k |
1,340 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $124k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $60k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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