No won. Smart money backed Yes (12 ranked wallets, average entry 8¢) and lost. Volume $438k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
makinta took +$1.5k on No from 85¢; the biggest loser gave up $965.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $659k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 45% | $252k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 17% | $184k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $158k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $82k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $71k |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30? | Yes 17% · No 84% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| makinta | No | $2k |
| Kokoel | No | $1k |
| akula1993 | No | $876.91 |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | $207.73 |
| nswe | No | $147.60 |
| 0xffa3… | No | $100.34 |
| 0xc961… | No | $98.90 |
| Anony777 | No | $83.86 |
| congresss | Yes | $76.60 |
| Panzerkampfwagen | No | $75.79 |
| vino1234 | No | $73 |
| 0x8001… | No | $52.87 |
312 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $5.6k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $5.1k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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