No won. Smart money backed Yes (10 ranked wallets, average entry 3¢) and lost. Volume $726k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
ev1710 took +$1.4k on No from 81¢; the biggest loser gave up $974.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $620k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $226k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 83% · No 17% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $152k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $79k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $69k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| ev1710 | No | $1k |
| ZhouSir1 | No | $517.02 |
| Voidofhype | Yes | $464.62 |
| leCommissaire | No | $437.75 |
| jbr | No | $374.69 |
| Sardinianshepherd | No | $371.18 |
| Folletin | No | $366.82 |
| Ox4B7e1D3cA9825F0aC176bE29d830A54F12cD78a6 | No | $350.00 |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | No | $347.00 |
| neetbets | No | $280 |
| Avitz33 | Yes | $238.36 |
| SquirrelTheMerchant | No | $211.03 |
584 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $8.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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