No won. Smart money backed Yes (2 ranked wallets, average entry 25¢) and lost. Volume $455k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31? | Yes 24% · No 77% | $71k |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $52k |
| Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen by November 30? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $42k |
| Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026? | China 80% · No meeting by December 31 17% · United States 1% | $34k |
| Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026? | Yes 25% · No 76% | $13k |
| Presidential Election Winner 2028 | Donald Trump 1% · Ivanka Trump 1% · Donald Trump Jr. 1% | $9k |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $9k |
| Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027? | Yes 13% · No 87% | $9k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| peterfromfamilyguy | No | $4k |
| Arbguy | No | $3k |
| AmericanIsraelPublicAffairsCommittee | No | $2k |
| turtle911 | No | $1k |
| Barkshire-Hathaway | Yes | $1k |
| SmallFishInWhaleStomach | No | $1k |
| steevo | No | $1k |
| Mr-Krabs | No | $960.04 |
| LFC8 | No | $924.80 |
| cookiejar | No | $754.03 |
| 0x0953… | No | $733.25 |
| 0x4eb1… | Yes | $686.57 |
242 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $22k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $23k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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