Yes won. Smart money backed No (4 ranked wallets, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $808k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
soll2 took +$1.5k on Yes from 94¢; the biggest loser gave up $4.2k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $248k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 90% · No 11% | $234k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 14% · No 87% | $139k |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | Yes 32% · No 69% | $90k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $75k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 34% · No 66% | $57k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $55k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $55k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| soll2 | Yes | $2k |
| agagyu | Yes | $929.97 |
| Fulgurator | Yes | $708.76 |
| HappyKorean | Yes | $623.93 |
| jinsun... | Yes | $597.46 |
| koy9104 | Yes | $435.20 |
| yingxer | Yes | $376.91 |
| minisobaby | Yes | $326.23 |
| M888 | Yes | $324.98 |
| budu100 | Yes | $323.84 |
| Avamax | Yes | $265.18 |
| fpjsqj | Yes | $235.53 |
408 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $9.8k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $17k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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