No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 5¢) and lost. Volume $76k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Blazzin16 took +$132 on No from 81¢; the biggest loser gave up $258.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $629k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Blazzin16 | No | $132.40 |
| clazzy1 | No | $68.40 |
| Granddaughter | Yes | $28.00 |
| 0x89ad… | No | $15.21 |
| 0xe1a3… | Yes | $14.38 |
| Faston | Yes | $13.76 |
| Talophex | No | $13.70 |
| keepsfailingupwards | No | $10.16 |
| idg84 | Yes | $9.60 |
| 0x7ed1… | No | $7.45 |
| melonmanm | No | $7.05 |
| Jumbajuz | No | $6.91 |
86 wallets held a position at the close. The 43 biggest winners took $389; the 43 biggest losers gave up $1.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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