No won. Smart money backed Yes (12 ranked wallets, average entry 26¢) and lost. Volume $1.6M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
LulaVaiPerder took +$6.9k on No from 81¢; the biggest loser gave up $5.5k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 90% · No 11% | $237k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $235k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 14% · No 87% | $139k |
| Israeli airspace closed by December 31, 2026? | Yes 32% · No 69% | $90k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $76k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 34% · No 66% | $57k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 64% · No 37% | $55k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $55k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| LulaVaiPerder | No | $7k |
| MissaoComFlavio | No | $6k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $4k |
| 0x8c66… | No | $2k |
| makinta | No | $2k |
| elreptil | No | $2k |
| RogerFed | No | $1k |
| mountmckinley | No | $996.77 |
| GIRMLJC26 | No | $893.02 |
| 0x6c10… | No | $705.01 |
| peterfromfamilyguy | No | $641.85 |
| Glicha | No | $507.24 |
1,985 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $35k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $55k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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