No won. Smart money backed Yes (10 ranked wallets, average entry 4¢) and lost. Volume $3.3M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
mindeirs took +$10k on No from 87¢; the biggest loser gave up $5.8k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mindeirs | No | $10k |
| loliti | No | $8k |
| MissaoComFlavio | No | $7k |
| LulaVaiPerder | No | $4k |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $2k |
| kohalacoastgabe | No | $2k |
| Lior-Pa | No | $2k |
| mm4ker | No | $2k |
| liriovertis | No | $2k |
| 8dcc906a9b | Yes | $1k |
| TulipoII | No | $1k |
| Sdfghji | No | $877.15 |
3,350 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $63k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $48k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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