Yes won. Smart money backed No (6 ranked wallets, average entry 24¢) and lost. Volume $2.7M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 18% · No 83% | $501k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $228k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $217k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 45% · No 55% | $178k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $171k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 77% · No 24% | $141k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 17% · No 84% | $128k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $126k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| hopefullynoloost | Yes | $11k |
| whig | Yes | $10k |
| Arbguy | Yes | $6k |
| khonikdev | Yes | $4k |
| yungstalin | Yes | $3k |
| MissaoComFlavio | Yes | $2k |
| BikesAreTheBikes | Yes | $2k |
| skibabiba | Yes | $1k |
| LulaVaiPerder | Yes | $1k |
| peterfromfamilyguy | Yes | $1k |
| Gohst | Yes | $1k |
| sqaolkytrpoi | Yes | $1k |
2,049 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $64k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $70k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
No ranked, Sharp or Whale wallet held this side.
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