Yes won. Smart money backed No (5 ranked wallets, average entry 13¢) and lost. Volume $453k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Analista. took +$772 on Yes from 58¢; the biggest loser gave up $4.0k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $638k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 15% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Analista. | Yes | $771.78 |
| deadaccount23432423342343 | Yes | $676.52 |
| OxF6C33EaE7cbC1dB8f9c6F10f0a3C54E5dC7aF1b8 | Yes | $360.91 |
| ooops | Yes | $209 |
| EmeraldEdge | Yes | $184 |
| melonmanm | Yes | $153.11 |
| Bromley86 | Yes | $145 |
| Coloat | Yes | $132.85 |
| Copezilla | Yes | $124.64 |
| 0x28b2… | Yes | $121.50 |
| enjoyevery | Yes | $109.56 |
| BigDumbDumb | Yes | $107.25 |
306 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $4.7k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $15k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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