Yes won. Smart money backed No (15 ranked wallets, average entry 7¢) and lost. Volume $557k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
0x41e8… took +$608 on Yes from 88¢; the biggest loser gave up $574.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x41e8… | Yes | $608.37 |
| MiuMiuYan | Yes | $560.09 |
| TronOG | Yes | $529.80 |
| wubddh | Yes | $419.35 |
| eCash | Yes | $233.65 |
| coffecat | Yes | $167.37 |
| 0x2505… | Yes | $154.57 |
| Cbs710 | Yes | $130.95 |
| topmoon | Yes | $100.96 |
| 0x36da… | Yes | $95.37 |
| tr1000 | Yes | $66.37 |
| 0x5923… | Yes | $63.12 |
233 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $3.7k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $5.4k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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