Yes won. Smart money backed No (11 ranked wallets, average entry 10¢) and lost. Volume $2.5M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
yuahldj took +$14k on Yes from 86¢; the biggest loser gave up $12k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 84% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 59% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| yuahldj | Yes | $14k |
| MiuMiuYan | Yes | $13k |
| eCash | Yes | $4k |
| Obey2162 | Yes | $2k |
| retrogeci.w | Yes | $2k |
| Ronaldo2100 | Yes | $2k |
| M2sx92kljs42 | Yes | $1k |
| Isekai | Yes | $954.36 |
| kakadu12 | Yes | $822 |
| randomlypunting | Yes | $650 |
| Everestpredictions | Yes | $646.70 |
| Topnotchdegenerate | Yes | $643.57 |
864 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $55k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $32k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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