Yes won. Smart money backed No (2 ranked wallets, average entry 91¢) and lost. Volume $1.7M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x96cf… | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| 0xed64… | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| 0x3f87… | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| 0x5e4c… | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 2% · No 99% | $692k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5? | Yes 2% · No 99% | $218k |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $208k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | Yes 39% · No 61% | $204k |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $153k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6? | Yes 1% · No 99% | $151k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $151k |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Yes 5% · No 96% | $130k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| melonmanm | Yes | $6k |
| Newshound | Yes | $6k |
| cashy | Yes | $6k |
| MaxVision | Yes | $6k |
| bobo035 | Yes | $5k |
| peterfromfamilyguy | Yes | $4k |
| 0x4346… | Yes | $4k |
| apmt | No | $3k |
| 0xfc2f… | Yes | $3k |
| moonlight2020 | Yes | $3k |
| 0x8aaa… | Yes | $3k |
| johnnyA | No | $3k |
1,267 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $84k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $83k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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