No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 18¢) and lost. Volume $104k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Gohst took +$451 on No from 42¢; the biggest loser gave up $491.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $629k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Gohst | No | $451.37 |
| 0x2712… | No | $386.37 |
| bondbondbond | Yes | $305.39 |
| Seldon26 | Yes | $283.48 |
| spacsisan | No | $160 |
| Grocerystore. | Yes | $118.13 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $117.27 |
| 0x8aaa… | Yes | $102.50 |
| Annihilation | No | $77.00 |
| jamieduggan | No | $68.66 |
| 0x3b44… | No | $65.08 |
| melonmanm | No | $64 |
234 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $3.1k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.8k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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