No won. Smart money backed Yes (17 ranked wallets, average entry 11¢) and lost. Volume $228k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
seal7 took +$663 on No from 74¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.2k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Eurovision Asia Winner 2026 | Malaysia 53% · Philippines 35% | $7k |
| Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner | Dune: Part Three 7% · Wild Horse Nine 2% · Project Hail Mary 0% | $7k |
| BBC Sports Personality of the Year Winner 2026 | Harry Kane 78% · Amy Hunt 3% | $6k |
| Will Zohran Mamdani be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes 25% · No 76% | $5k |
| Will Malaysia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision Asia 2026 Grand Final? | Yes 64% · No 36% | $5k |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | Yes 9% · No 91% | $4k |
| Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? | Yes 6% · No 94% | $4k |
| Will "The Social Reckoning" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes 8% · No 92% | $3k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| seal7 | No | $662.90 |
| grio4j3232f3e3 | No | $660 |
| Bikesarethebest | No | $302.32 |
| Vincent-CZ | No | $77.87 |
| regregr | No | $63.78 |
| adenakoz1 | No | $51 |
| Bikesarethebest | Yes | $39.65 |
| ConsensusIsWrongUA | No | $37.96 |
| FRANK.THE.TANK | No | $34.78 |
| l5wrGYrLGv | No | $23.93 |
| 0xf338… | No | $19.46 |
| asdfasdddd4412 | No | $18.88 |
274 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.4k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $14k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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