No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 16¢) and lost. Volume $89k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
M2x1mus took +$3.3k on No from 92¢; the biggest loser gave up $528.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| M2x1mus | No | $3k |
| mamai | No | $658.20 |
| okada | No | $212.60 |
| PashaAsOracul | No | $149.08 |
| 0x4e81… | No | $146.72 |
| CMETAHKA | No | $140.74 |
| nero2589 | No | $136.56 |
| gambler13 | Yes | $125.18 |
| winelavkakz | No | $115.35 |
| aandriy | No | $112.01 |
| solin1292 | No | $110.01 |
| itsfomo | No | $94.15 |
167 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $6.5k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $2.4k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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