Yes won. Smart money backed No (1 ranked wallet, average entry 54¢) and lost. Volume $18k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? | Yes 3% · No 97% | $249k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 97% · No 3% | $243k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3? | Yes 96% · No 4% | $157k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 27% · No 74% | $147k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | Yes 98% · No 2% | $145k |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | Yes 2% · No 98% | $125k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? | Yes 73% · No 28% | $98k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4? | Yes 94% · No 7% | $96k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| chechok | Yes | $317.02 |
| DumplingBMF | Yes | $209.43 |
| 0x2aa2… | Yes | $155.16 |
| tsybka | Yes | $87.82 |
| NiceDuckBro | Yes | $67.83 |
| Voltoger | Yes | $12.44 |
| rubby1337 | Yes | $10.80 |
| 0x8ca6… | Yes | $7.90 |
| SulkingCrypto | Yes | $6.66 |
| bohdancio | Yes | $4.71 |
| LoneForestWolf | Yes | $4.16 |
| Pulsar1257b | Yes | $4.13 |
33 wallets held a position at the close. The 19 biggest winners took $900; the 14 biggest losers gave up $463. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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