No 99% · Yes 2%. Smart money leans No (3 ranked wallets, average entry 88¢). Volume $121k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
cezarn132 took +$1.0k on No from 92¢; the biggest loser gave up $2.6k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $640k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $163k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $86k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 70% · No 31% | $68k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| cezarn132 | No | $1k |
| machiavelia | No | $742.12 |
| tradervader | No | $169.91 |
| solban | No | $87.27 |
| GaioMario | No | $75.90 |
| Jerzy | No | $62.22 |
| itsfomo | No | $52.50 |
| smallbeaver | No | $50.16 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | $30.00 |
| plla | No | $28.97 |
| TheOne777 | No | $26.44 |
| leqso0410 | No | $24.11 |
114 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $2.6k; the 51 biggest losers gave up $3.0k. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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