No won. Smart money backed Yes (10 ranked wallets, average entry 15¢) and lost. Volume $399k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
highfiveHQ took +$416 on No from 87¢; the biggest loser gave up $628.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $629k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| highfiveHQ | No | $415.50 |
| JordanMooney | No | $216.49 |
| fooba | Yes | $183.03 |
| 4fee-s3 | No | $170.08 |
| SPY-KT | Yes | $160.03 |
| 0xca75… | No | $138.58 |
| nellojello | Yes | $138.30 |
| 98Ddd05Cde45d05C4fC06f4093759FFDDFSFFSDDVF | Yes | $126.49 |
| Mysaria | No | $111.65 |
| M3RL1N | No | $111.13 |
| autocurate | No | $89.65 |
| Lipo | Yes | $77.36 |
326 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $3.7k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $4.6k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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