No won. Smart money backed Yes (16 ranked wallets, average entry 15¢) and lost. Volume $763k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
fauxios took +$2.2k on Yes from 48¢; the biggest loser gave up $6.5k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $629k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 10% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| fauxios | Yes | $2k |
| residual | No | $2k |
| garlictrump | No | $1k |
| adenakoz1 | No | $690.76 |
| 38327832383823 | Yes | $545.64 |
| 0xe1a3… | Yes | $523.51 |
| jesus911 | No | $393.94 |
| maglc | Yes | $381.34 |
| 0x7bd6… | No | $379.26 |
| SPY-KT | No | $345.57 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352 | No | $334.25 |
| ilovecarrots | No | $291.27 |
697 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $15k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $27k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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