No won. Smart money backed Yes (1 ranked wallet, average entry 46¢) and lost. Volume $588k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
davran took +$2.1k on No from 61¢; the biggest loser gave up $984.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Which company has the best AI model end of November? | Google 75% · Anthropic 23% · OpenAI 3% | $25k |
| When will Gemini Carbon be released? | November 9–November 15 82% · November 16–November 22 17% | $20k |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | Google 65% · Anthropic 30% · OpenAI 4% | $12k |
| How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026? | 0 87% · 1 9% · 2 2% | $12k |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $10k |
| Gemini Carbon released on...? | November 10 45% · November 11 23% | $7k |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | Yes 12% · No 89% | $7k |
| Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of November? | Moonshot 35% · Alibaba 21% · Z.ai 20% | $6k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| davran | No | $2k |
| narize | No | $2k |
| caunt | No | $2k |
| 0x28b2… | No | $1k |
| ldouya | Yes | $656.72 |
| big-short | No | $523.67 |
| eugenii | No | $304.30 |
| Rumpelstiltskin | No | $221.00 |
| Lapinot | No | $220.49 |
| 0x5218… | No | $183.40 |
| SheilaRamos5947 | No | $177.19 |
| tanghulu | No | $176.92 |
542 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $12k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $6.0k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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