No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 11¢) and lost. Volume $199k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
Ofek4643 took +$1.1k on No from 21¢; the biggest loser gave up $3.7k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $624k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $251k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $246k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 15% | $170k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $145k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 93% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $70k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| Ofek4643 | No | $1k |
| greatbritain | No | $878.72 |
| smellyEllie | No | $858.76 |
| BBL-Drizzy | No | $571.32 |
| TarekSingh | No | $510.20 |
| CHIKI33 | No | $490 |
| melonmanm | No | $464.92 |
| 0xCuck | No | $339.70 |
| Metapoli | No | $207.93 |
| countbinface33 | No | $182.79 |
| Beyondthenorm | Yes | $154.92 |
| Asphalt | No | $148.87 |
317 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $8.3k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $12k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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