No won. Smart money backed Yes (5 ranked wallets, average entry 5¢) and lost. Volume $539k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
HongKongMenace took +$1.5k on No from 96¢; the biggest loser gave up $765.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $654k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 45% | $254k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 83% · No 17% | $172k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 19% · No 82% | $158k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $144k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 6% · No 95% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 58% · No 42% | $77k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | Yes 69% · No 31% | $77k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| HongKongMenace | No | $1k |
| MoonLambo1205 | No | $710.66 |
| makinta | No | $211.83 |
| CrazyArab | No | $104.93 |
| Trustinghorse | No | $87.97 |
| nakam | No | $79.87 |
| SAPolitcsSeer | No | $71.77 |
| Boobavelli | No | $53.35 |
| lakers6 | Yes | $37.25 |
| GMR80AND | No | $33.84 |
| ppyiago | No | $21.70 |
| 0x2c2b… | No | $20.07 |
106 wallets held a position at the close. The 57 biggest winners took $3.1k; the 49 biggest losers gave up $1.5k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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