No won. Smart money backed Yes (7 ranked wallets, average entry 1¢) and lost. Volume $9.3M. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
0x3c63… took +$2.5k on No from 100¢; the biggest loser gave up $48.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $642k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 57% · No 43% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $171k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $146k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $83k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| 0x3c63… | No | $3k |
| 0x505f… | No | $2k |
| 0x23ae… | No | $2k |
| 0x4823… | No | $2k |
| 0x3692… | No | $2k |
| Jesuschristsuperstar | Yes | $15.39 |
| cash-machine | No | $7.19 |
| BFivePol | Yes | $4.74 |
| beifanglang | Yes | $4.20 |
| quangdotca | Yes | $3.89 |
| Banditoes | Yes | $3.63 |
| kehusdiyid | Yes | $3.60 |
153 wallets held a position at the close. The 23 biggest winners took $13k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $593. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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