Yes won. Smart money backed No (7 ranked wallets, average entry 35¢) and lost. Volume $505k. Every smart wallet on Polynyx ↗
BunnyClick took +$5.0k on Yes from 44¢; the biggest loser gave up $3.0k.
See every winner & loser ↗| Wallet | P&L | 30d P&L |
|---|---|---|
| mintblade | $9.2M | $9.2M |
| fishalive | $9.1M | $9.1M |
| frostrizz | $8.9M | $8.9M |
| GRIMDRIP | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| joseph00677 | $5.6M | $7.2M |
| muchobliged | $2.2M | $7.1M |
| endlessFate | $7.4M | $4.7M |
| Inaccuratestake | $4.0M | $3.9M |
| Market | Odds | 24h volume |
|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7? | Yes 99% · No 1% | $644k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes 11% · No 90% | $249k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes 56% · No 44% | $245k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? | Yes 85% · No 16% | $169k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | Yes 20% · No 81% | $153k |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026? | Yes 7% · No 94% | $85k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15? | Yes 60% · No 41% | $71k |
| Iran leadership change by November 30? | Yes 4% · No 96% | $70k |
| Wallet | Outcome | P&L |
|---|---|---|
| BunnyClick | Yes | $5k |
| 0x4db1… | Yes | $1k |
| ev1710 | Yes | $603.70 |
| Vv7777777 | Yes | $508.98 |
| 5.6sol | Yes | $430.07 |
| simpton | Yes | $357.08 |
| DoubleAgentKrasnov | Yes | $338.55 |
| John-Silver | Yes | $307.88 |
| CryptoGo | Yes | $249.17 |
| 0x58e0… | Yes | $232.48 |
| 0xfad4… | Yes | $225.30 |
| Suprasapiens | Yes | $207.29 |
608 wallets held a position at the close. The 60 biggest winners took $14k; the 60 biggest losers gave up $16k. The ranked wallets were on the wrong side. Realized at resolution from on-chain fills, bots included and flagged.
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