Politics · Geopolitics · 32 outcomes · live

Iran leader end of 2026?

Iran leader end of 2026? on Polymarket: Mojtaba Khamenei leads at 91%, ahead of No Head of State at 3% and Alireza Arafi at 3%. 32 outcomes are listed, 2 already settled, $40.7M has traded on the event, $2.1M sits in the books; it closes Dec 31, 2026. The week's biggest move is Mojtaba Khamenei, +5 pts. 47 ranked wallets back Mojtaba Khamenei at an average entry of 81¢. Every smart wallet on Mojtaba Khamenei on Polynyx ↗

Mojtaba Khamenei
91%
No Head of State
3%
Ranked wallets
back Mojtaba Khamenei
Mover · 7d
Mojtaba Khame… +5 pts

Trade like a whale.Every smart wallet on Mojtaba Khamenei by name, their entries and the live tape — on Polynyx.Trade like a whale ↗

Iran leader end of 2026?

live

32

outcomes

$40.7M

volume

$2.1M

liquidity

Dec 31

closes

Iran leader end of 2026? · odds race

Odds history

Every outcome by odds

32 outcomes

1Mojtaba Khamenei90.9%
2No Head of State3.1%
3Alireza Arafi2.7%
4Reza Pahlavi1%
5Hassan Rouhani0.5%
6Masoud Pezeshkian0.3%
7Abbas Araghchi0.3%
8Ahmad Vahidi0.3%
9Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf0.3%
10Hassan Khomeini0.2%
11Muhammad Mirbaqiri0.2%
12Sadegh Larijani0.2%
13Maryam Rajavi0.2%
14Hassan Shariatmadari0.1%

Biggest moves · past week

Odds momentum

1Mojtaba Khamenei+5 pts
2No Head of State-1.8 pts
3Reza Pahlavi-1.2 pts
4Alireza Arafi+1.2 pts
5Ahmad Vahidi-0.5 pts

Every outcome

Odds for all 32 outcomes.

Each outcome is its own Polymarket market; the odds are its live Yes price, the move is over the past week. Open an outcome for its odds history, the smart money on each side, holders and the tape.

Outcome	Odds	7d	Volume	Status
1Mojtaba Khamenei	91%	+5 pts	$7.1M	live
2No Head of State	3%	−1.8 pts	$1.2M	live
3Alireza Arafi	3%	+1.2 pts	$2.3M	live
4Reza Pahlavi	1%	−1.3 pts	$729k	live
5Hassan Rouhani	0%	—	$959k	live
6Masoud Pezeshkian	0%	—	$1.0M	live
7Abbas Araghchi	0%	—	$846k	live
8Ahmad Vahidi	0%	−0.6 pts	$790k	live
9Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf	0%	—	$933k	live
10Hassan Khomeini	0%	—	$1.5M	live
11Muhammad Mirbaqiri	0%	—	$482k	live
12Sadegh Larijani	0%	—	$592k	live
13Maryam Rajavi	0%	—	$911k	live
14Hassan Shariatmadari	0%	—	$3.2M	live
15Massoud Rajavi	0%	—	$439k	live
16Seyed Hossein Mousavian	0%	—	$3.7M	live
17Reza Pirzadeh	0%	—	$188k	live
18Navid Shomali	0%	—	$260k	live
19Mustafa Hijri	0%	—	$239k	live
20Ali Motahari	0%	—	$860k	live
21Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel	0%	—	$443k	live
22Mostafa Pourmohammadi	0%	—	$3.4M	live
23Sadegh Mahsouli	0%	—	$276k	live
24Saeed Jalili	0%	—	$426k	live
25Mahmoud Ahmadinejad	0%	—	$1.1M	live
26Mohammad Khatami	0%	—	$5.2M	live
27Mohsen Araki	0%	—	$330k	live
28Nasir Hosseini	0%	—	$301k	live
29Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani	0%	—	$334k	live
30Ali Asghar Hejazi	0%	—	$394k	live
31Mohammad Pakpour	0%	—	—	out
32Ali Larijani	0%	—	$237k	out

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FAQ

Who is favored to win Iran leader end of 2026? on Polymarket?: Mojtaba Khamenei, at 91%, ahead of No Head of State at 3%; $40.7M has traded on the event. Odds are each outcome's live Yes price and re-render every 30 minutes here; a cloned dashboard refreshes on your plan's cadence — every minute on Developer.
What are the odds for each outcome of Iran leader end of 2026??: Mojtaba Khamenei 91%, No Head of State 3%, Alireza Arafi 3%, Reza Pahlavi 1%, Hassan Rouhani 0%, and 25 more. Every outcome's odds, weekly move and volume are in the table on this page; the prices are the live Yes price of each outcome's own Polymarket market, so they add up to about 100%.
Where does this data come from?: Each outcome's live price, volume and history from Polymarket's public APIs, plus Polynyx's analytics layer for the smart money: 500M+ on-chain fills rebuilt into wallet P&L and positioning, with arbitrage and market-maker bots filtered out. The wallet-level view of the favourite — every smart wallet by name — lives on Polynyx.
Can I make this my own dashboard?: Yes. Use this template clones 7 widgets into your account — the odds lines of the two favourites, the smart money and the biggest holders on Mojtaba Khamenei, the Geopolitics markets and tape — and publishes as a page of its own.

Part of the Geopolitics Polymarket dashboard. Browse every live event, the single markets or the top wallets. Prefer code? The same data is a REST API and MCP server.